Caribbean Stud Poker involves a lot of luck, but it is possible to play a sound strategy that increases your chances of winning.
When to Play, When to Fold
Setting aside the progressive jackpot for a moment, there is really just one decision point in Caribbean Stud Poker -- to play or fold your hand. Folding means losing your ante, while playing means committing another bet worth twice the ante. Thus if the ante was £5, the "call bet" or "raise" is £10.
When making your decision whether to play or fold, you have two pieces of information: (1) your hand, and (2) one of the dealer's five cards. Much like in blackjack, you should evaluate what you have and what the dealer is showing in order to decide how to proceed. And usually looking at what you have is going to be enough for you to make your decision.
Just like in blackjack when you always want to stand when you're dealt good hands (e.g., 17 and higher), there are certain hands in Caribbean Stud Poker you should always play.
Any hand with a pair or better should be played. So should most hands containing both an ace and a king. In fact, it's acceptable just to play one-pair-or-better hands and all your A-K-x-x-x hands, and fold the rest.
It should be obvious, actually, why it isn't smart to play less than A-K-x-x-x. The dealer needs at least that to have a qualifying hand, so if you play a worse hand than that, you can only get double your ante bet back and a "push" on your raise. In other words, you're risking three units to win one -- and while holding a relatively weak hand, too!
So always play hands with a pair or better, and always consider playing with A-K-high, too. There are a couple of spots, however, when you might actually fold your A-K-x-x-x hand.
If you have A-K-x-x-x and the dealer's up card is not a king or ace, you should play. The chances of him having better than your A-K hand are less since you have both an ace and a king in your hand. He can always turn over a pair or better to beat you, but you always should be playing your A-K-x-x-x hand here.
However, if the dealer does have an ace or king showing, look at your other three cards to decide what to do.
If you have a Q or J among those cards, playing is a good idea, since even if he has A-K-x-x-x to qualify, your A-K hand is likely better. But if your next highest card is a 10 or lower, you probably should let your hand go.
Advanced Caribbean Stud Poker strategy considers other factors, too, but keeping these few ideas in mind regarding A-K hands is enough to ensure you'll be playing most of your hands advantageously.
Should You Play the Progressive Jackpot?
Remember that in Caribbean Stud Poker you have an option to make a side bet, too, usually just for an extra £1 or $1, called the "progressive jackpot." This is a bet on the possibility of your getting lucky and being dealt a flush or better.
It can be a tempting bet, especially for new players. The problem is, the payouts are almost always well out of proportion to your chances of hitting the needed hands.
For example, it is standard for the progressive jackpot to pay 50x should you be dealt a flush. Thus, for that £1 bet you'd get a sweet-looking £50 in return. However, the probability of being dealt a flush is about 508-to-1. You can see right away how this isn't such a good gamble.
And while hitting that royal flush will win you 100% of the jackpot -- whatever it happens to be at the time -- you're only due a royal every 650,000 hands or so. Indeed, playing the lottery is probably a better way to go.
In other words, sound strategy says avoid the progressive jackpot. Then again, if you're feeling lucky and are in a gambling mood, go for it -- you could win a lot for a little!